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The FTSE is currently indicating lower opening as traders wait for the release of the net consumer credit numbers. While the Bank of England can cut interest rates to help the economy, none of that really matters if the chartered banks are not going to lend that money to consumers or companies. If the numbers come out worse then expected, the FTSE is likely to end the week on a negative note.

Crude oil is set for a weekly decline of 11 percent, as concerns about a deeper U.S. recession outweighed OPEC pledges to increase output cuts. Later today, the US GDP numbers will be released, and analysts are expecting a fall of more then 5%. Should the number come out worse, oil could end the week below the 40 dollars per barrel level.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4170.6 (-15.7)
CAC40 2989.10 (-18.40)
DAX30 4390.3 (-29.5)
DOW: 8182 (+37)
SP500 849.73 (+4.00)
Gold: 902.10 (-4.35)
Oil: 41.56 (+0.01)

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After a positive first half of the week, global equities are serving a reminder of just how difficult bear markets can be. Traders are quick to grab whatever short term profits they have made, making it difficult for rallies to build momentum. Banking shares have reversed a good chunk of the gains made over the last few days, but are still holding above the closing levels from last week. Today worry isn’t specifically related to complex financial deficits, fears are more in relation to general analysis that banks are not the place to be in during a recession. With house prices continuing to plunge on both sides of the Atlantic, rising unemployment and an increased risk of default on loans, the recession itself is enough put pressure on banks. This is before you take into account their dire capital adequacy positions.

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Equities shot out of the starting gate today on both sides of the Atlantic. In the UK, it was Lloyd’s turn to join the party after a bullish note from Citi Group whet investors’ appetite for the new banking giant. With a fundamental valuation of financial shares being difficult to say the least, confidence has been the currency of choice ever since the credit crisis broke. Today, confidence is working for the banks as the idea of nationalisation is shoved to the sidelines for now.

US markets launched higher from the open in large part due to the bad bank plan announced by the Obama Government. Such a opening large gap higher is unheard of on a Fed day, normally rate decision days are tight affairs before the announcement. No-one expects the Fed to cut rates this afternoon, but the policy statement will certainly be a market mover and if the markets like what they hear, we could push even higher off the 2008 lows.

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The FTSE is currently indicating higher opening, as traders hope that todays slew of economic data will help shed a positive light on the world economy. While there wont be any UK data today, we will be paying attention to the EU CPI inflation index along with the US interest rate decision this later this afternoon. Should the CPI numbers come out better then expected, the FTSE could get a nice boost.

Commodity prices took a tumble yesterday as the global recession eroded demand for energy, metals and grains. The Energy Department announces the inventory numbers tomorrow, and rumors indicate that stockpiles probably rose again. Look for oil prices to test the 40 dollars per barrel level by the end of the week.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4222.1 (+32.3)
CAC40 3024.30 (+73.00)
DAX30 4361.1 (+30.1)
DOW: 8272 (+108)
SP500 858.98 (+17.00)
Gold: 894.95 (-1.95)
Oil: 41.83 (+0.22)

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Financials are still enjoying some follow on buying, but gains have been trimmed from earlier in the day. The main culprit for today’s fall in the FTSE, for once isn’t the banks, but the energy sector. BP and Shell make up a sizeable chunk of the UK’s benchmark index, so with crude down around 5% on the day, it is always going to be difficult for the FTSE to make traction.

After the excitement over yesterday’s new home sales coming in at better than expected, the US housing slump is still showing of signs of abating. Sales of homes may have increased more than expected by volume, but prices are continuing to plumb new depths. The 10 and 20 city indices are down over 25% from their peak and over 18% on last year. House prices are now back to 2004 levels with further to go if the current trend line is anything to go by.

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The FTSE is currently indicating a flat opening, as traders wait for the release of the BBA mortgage loans number. While the Bank of England can cut interest rates, as long as banks are not lending money to credit starved business and consumers the economy is going to struggle. Should the loan number be better then expected look for the retail and manufacturing stocks to get a nice boost.

Crude oil fell from a two-week high on speculation recession in the world's largest economies will curtail demand for fuel and energy. A report later this week will probably show the U.S. economy shrank 5.5 percent in the fourth-quarter, the fastest pace in 26 years. White House officials are working to get President Barack Obama's $825 billion stimulus package approved by mid-February to create or save as many as 4 million jobs.
Oil prices will likely spend most of the week near the 40 dollars per barrel level.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4053.0 (+8.2)
CAC40 2849.70 (+6.20)
DAX30 4173.80 (-7.0)
DOW: 7987 (-77)
SP500 821.60 (-4.63)
Gold: 891.40 (-1.03)
Oil: 45.73 (-0.48)

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Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com

The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders are looking for value after a three day sell off. While there is no UK economic data today, there will be plenty from our neighbors from across the ocean which will more then likely affect the London Index.
The FTSE will probably spend the day in positive territory.

Crude oil gained more then 6% on speculation a bank-rescue plan by the new US president will help boost economic growth and increase fuel demand. Prices could fall on speculation that the U.S. crude-oil inventories rose last week when the inventory numbers are released at 11 a.m. today a day later than usual because of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.

Predicted opens as of 6:00 GMT
FTSE: 4138.3 (+73.3)
CAC40 2976.30 (+75.50)
DAX30 4355.2 (+102.20)
DOW: 8235 (+12)
SP500 842.73 (+2.75)
Gold: 852.45 (+1.10)
Oil: 43.93 (+0.42)

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Please find below the Afternoon Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com

After enjoying a bank holiday weekend away, US traders no doubt cursed their European cousins as they returned to their trading desks today. US equities sold off sharply at the open, partly as a function of the British banking crisis and partly due to renewed concerns over this week’s round of earnings reports. With major companies such as Apple, IBM, Google and Microsoft reporting this week, investors are concerned that analysts may not have been pessimistic enough with their earnings estimates.

Financials are once again dragging the FTSE down with all UK banks down on the day. The spectre of full nationalisation looms large over the likes of RBS and Lloyds and the prospect of this is weighing heavily on the beleaguered pound. Sterling is being shunned as traders speculate on the scale of the government’s eventual liability with regard to the banks. The Treasury has effectively admitted that it has no idea how much this will all cost UK tax payers eventually. This coupled with a rumoured downgrade to the sovereign credit rating of the UK government has pushed sterling down to below the 1.4000 against the dollar level. Perhaps the only thing stopping an all out collapse in the pound is the fact that the Eurozone and US economies are hardly a bed of roses themselves.

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Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com

The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening, as traders are preparing for the release of the UK Consumer Price Index. Everyone is hoping that the inflation index will show that the average consumer is now getting more bang for their buck, analysts are expecting a drop of 0.9%. Should the number come out better then expected, the FTSE should get a nice boost.

Oil prices fell yesterday as slowing world demand, reduced tension in the Middle East and settlement of Russia's gas dispute with Ukraine has reduced some risk of uncertainty from the market. Some analysts are talking about oil jumping back into the 65 dollars per barrel level later this year, mainly on reduced output by OPEC and other producing countries. In the mean time, oil is probably going to dip into the 38 dollars per barrel level.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4096.7 (-12.80)
CAC40 2979.70 (-7.80)
DAX30 423.60 (-14.70)
DOW: 8191.00 (-38)
SP500 840.23 (-2.50)
Gold: 830.78 (-6.90)
Oil: 40.52 (-0.31)

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PLEASE NOTE - All times GMT

Monday January 19th:

US - ALL - Holiday - Martin Luther King Day.
UK - 00:01- Rightmove HPI M/M.
EU - 11:50 - ECB President Trichet Speaks.

Tuesday January 20th:

UK - 09:30 - CPI Y/Y.
UK - 09:30 - Core CPI Y/Y.
UK - 09:30 - RPI Y/Y.
GE - 10:00 - ZEW Economic Sentiment.
EU - 10:00 - ZEW Economic Sentiment.
UK - 20:20 - BOE Gov King Speaks.

Wednesday January 21st:

GE - 07:00 - PPI M/M.
EU - 09:30 - ECB President Trichet Speaks.
UK - 09:30 - Claimant Count Change.
UK - 09:30 - MPC Meeting Minutes.
UK - 09:30 - Average Earnings Index Q/Q.
UK - 09:30 - Prelim M4 Money Supply M/M.
UK - 09:30 - Public Sector Net Borrowing.
UK - 09:30 - Unemployment Rate.
UK - 09:45 - MPC Member Tucker Speaks.
US - 18:00 - NAHB Housing Market Index.
Thursday January 22nd:

FR - 07:45 - Consumer Spending M/M.
EU - 09:00 - ECB Monhtly Bulletin.
EU - 10:00 - Industrial New Orders M/M.
UK - 11:00 - CBI Industrial Order Expectations.
US - 13:30 - Building Permits.
US - 13:30 - Housing Starts.
US - 13:30 - Unemployment Claims.
US - 15:00 - HPI M/M..
US - 16:00 - Crude Oil Inventories.
Friday January 23rd:

FR -08:00- Flash Manufacturing PMI.
FR - 08:00 - Flash Services PMI.
GE - 08:30 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
GE - 08:30 - Flash Services PMI.
EU - 09:00 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
EU - 09:00 - Flash Services PMI.
UK - 09:30 - Prelim GDP Q/Q.
UK - 09:30 - Retail Sales M/M.
UK - 09:30 - Index of Services Q/Q.
EU - 14:00 - Belgium NBB Business Climate.
US - 15:30 - Natural Gas Storage.

EU - Europe wide
FR - France
UK - United Kingdom
US - United States
GE - Germany

The week ahead.

After taking some time off between Christmas and New Year, the credit crunch was well and truly back in action last week. Fears over further banking problems and sovereign debt downgrades for the likes of Ireland and Greece surfaced last month, but until now, these fears have merely been simmering in the background. Last week, the heat was once again turned up, and major fault lines are once again running through the global economy.

According to Bespoke Investments, the S&P 500 suffered its worst 9 day start to the year ever. The omens aren't great with the rest of the year returning -0.74% when the market gets off to such a stuttering start.

US (un)employment and banking problems once again dominated the headlines. Citi group announced it will split in two after announcing an $8.29 billion loss. At the same time, Bank of America posted its first loss in 17 years while receiving a $138 billion bailout.
Economists talk about the prospects of a V, U or L shaped recovery for the worlds various economies, reflecting the expected speed of any return to growth. The prospect of the US or UK following a Japanese style "lost" decade or L shaped recovery would have been laughed at just a couple of years ago, but the world is a very different place today. Economists have made various predictions that the recovery will begin in the fourth quarter of 2009, or first quarter of 2010, but perhaps what is scaring people the most is the growing realisation that nobody knows what is going to happen. Arguably, the banks still haven" confessed all their subprime sins and until they do, rumours will continue to spread concerning capital requirements. As they are at the epicentre of the crisis, this uncertainty could continue to shake markets for a good part of 2009. The global recovery may turn out to be worse than most people expect, it may turn out to be better, but nothing makes an investor reach for the sell button more than the unknown.
It was never going to be a good week for the FTSE when its two main sectors; finance and energy led the selling. Global banking giant HSBC hit the headlines after a Morgan Stanley note warned that it might have to raise $30 bn and cut its dividend in half. Deutsche Bank added to the misery by announcing a $6.33 bn loss in the last quarter. They were forced to deny rumours that this was down to a rogue trader. Considering the size of the loss, one has to wonder whether it is worse that such a loss was generated through authorised channels.

The biggest market mover at the start of the week was Bernanke's speech, in which he outlined the need for further capital injections and guarantees for banks. Considering this came in the same week as BoA's bailout, one can only assume that he was right on the money. The notion of UK banks requiring further capital injections was highlighted recently by The Bank of England deputy governor Charlie Bean. Most UK financials have now reversed all of last week's gains, as traders speculate that this capital injection is moving closer to reality, along with the creation of a so called bad bank' that would soak up toxic assets. Many analysts are now in agreement that something needs to be done, and although the treasury continues to deny such an act is on the cards, it may be a question of when, not if.

Last week it was announced that Apple talisman Steve Jobs would be taking a medical leave of absence. The announcement rattled the share price, but it did not collapse as many believe it could have done. The share price held above the $80 level last week, and there is a chance that it could continue to hold above this level if investors buy the story that there is more to Apple than Steve Jobs.

A No Touch trade predicting that Apple won't touch $77 over the next 30 days could return 126% of profit at BetOnMarkets.com.

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Sunday, January 18, 2009
BetOnMarkets Morning Report

Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com

The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders seem enthusiastic about economy after better then expected Rightmove house prices. Some traders are excited about Tuesdays CPI numbers, as rumors indicate that the data will be better then expected. It is Martin Luther King Day in US; as a result all banks and exchanges are closed. The FTSE will probably start the week in positive territory.

Crude oil fell after the latest forecast showed that faltering global economic growth will drive down fuel demand for a second year. As a result OPEC will probably introduce another round of production cuts at the March 15th meeting. The goal for the organization is to keep oil above the 60 dollar per barrel level. Oil will most likely stay under the 42 dollar level until the next inventory announcement on Thursday this week due to the Monday holiday.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4206.1 (+63.6)
CAC40 3040.70 (+26.90)
DAX30 4398.2 (+29.9)
DOW: 8361 (+94)
SP500 859.23 (+7.00)
Gold: 837.35 (-4.45)
Oil: 42.16 (-0.27)

BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from GBP1 to GBP25,000.

BetOnMarkets.com

Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com

The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders seem enthusiastic about economy after better then expected Rightmove house prices. Some traders are excited about Tuesdays CPI numbers, as rumors indicate that the data will be better then expected. It is Martin Luther King Day in US; as a result all banks and exchanges are closed. The FTSE will probably start the week in positive territory.

Crude oil fell after the latest forecast showed that faltering global economic growth will drive down fuel demand for a second year. As a result OPEC will probably introduce another round of production cuts at the March 15th meeting. The goal for the organization is to keep oil above the 60 dollar per barrel level. Oil will most likely stay under the 42 dollar level until the next inventory announcement on Thursday this week due to the Monday holiday.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4206.1 (+63.6)
CAC40 3040.70 (+26.90)
DAX30 4398.2 (+29.9)
DOW: 8361 (+94)
SP500 859.23 (+7.00)
Gold: 837.35 (-4.45)
Oil: 42.16 (-0.27)

BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from GBP1 to GBP25,000.

BetOnMarkets.com

Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com

The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, continuing a rally that started in this morning in Asia. While there is no UK economic news today, there will be plenty from the North American side of the ocean to keep things interesting. We will get a glimpse at the US inflation numbers with the release of the CPI report at 13.30GMT and consumer confidence at 15.00 GMT. The FTSE will more then likely close out the week on a positive note.

Oil is set for the biggest weekly decline in a month, after OPEC announced that demand will drop this year amid a global recession. The organization cut its global demand estimate by another 20,000 barrels per day. The March futures contract is trading at 43.21 per barrel, there is a chance that oil will end the day closer to the 40 dollar level.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4183 (+71.2)
CAC40 3047.60 (+52.30)
DAX30 4413.7 (+89.2)
DOW: 8259 (+46)
SP500 847.73 (+4.50)
Gold: 819.75 (+1.45)
Oil: 43.19 (+7.78)

BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from GBP1 to GBP25,000.

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It’s unfortunately a case of more of the same today as markets continue to reverse the rally from the lows from November. US jobless claims and banking problems once again dominate the headlines. Economists talk about the prospects of a V, U or L shaped recovery for the worlds various economies, reflecting the expected speed of any return to growth. The prospect of the US or UK following a Japanese style ‘lost’ decade or L shaped recovery would have been laughed at just a couple of years ago, but the world is a very different place today. Economists have made various predictions that the recovery will begin in the fourth quarter 2009/ first quarter 2010 etc, but perhaps what is scaring people the most is the growing realisation that nobody knows what is going to happen. Arguably, the banks still haven’t confessed all their sub prime sins and until they do, rumours will continues spread concerning capital requirements. As they are at the epicentre of the crisis, this uncertainty could continue to shake markets for a good part of 2009. The global recovery may turn out to be worse than most people expect, it may turn out to be better, but nothing makes an investor reach for the sell button more than the unknown.

BetOnMarkets.com

Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com

The FTSE is currently indicating a slightly lower opening, as traders have no UK economic data to help them move the market. In Europe on the other hand, traders will be all ears when the ECB announces its latest interest rate decision. Analysts are expecting a 50 basis point cut; however it would not surprise me if the ECB cut an extra 25 basis points to help stimulate the stagnant economy. An interest rate cut usually benefits the equity markets so look for a nice jump in the European markets today.

Oil tumbled yesterday after a government report showed slowing demand sent U.S. stockpiles soaring to a 16-month high. Fuel demand fell 6 percent, the largest one-week decline in almost five years, as the Federal Reserve reported the U.S. economy weakened further in the past month. Oil prices should stabilize around the 35 dollars per barrel level for the near term.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4156.3 (-19.2)
CAC40 3030.50 (-18.80)
DAX30 4407.2 (-18.3)
DOW: 8154 (-43)
SP500 834.98 (-7.50)
Gold: 809.15 (-3.20)
Oil: 36.54 (-0.70)

BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 21 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from GBP1 to GBP25,000.

BetOnMarkets.com

Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com

The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening as traders wait for the release of the trade balance numbers. Because the UK economy is trade driven, Trade data can give critical insight into developments in the economy and into foreign exchange rates. The FTSE will be highly sensitive to the numbers especially the retail sector.

Crude oil fell for a sixth day in New York, extending yesterday's 7.9 percent slump on speculation oil inventories last week increased as demand declined. Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the world's biggest state oil company, sent notices to refiners in Asia on Jan. 9 that it would lower crude supplies to the region by about 10 percent in February. This is another attempt to help slow down the slide of oil prices by cutting supplies.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4398.2 (-31.3)
CAC40 3228.70 (-14.30)
DAX30 4704.1 (-16.2)
DOW: 8522 (+56)
SP500 875.48 (+4.00)
Gold: 825.60 (+6.25)
Oil: 37.06 (-0.50)

BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from GBP1 to GBP25,000.

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